UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026: India on Track, Emissions to Rise
Image: NASA Earth Observatory
India is likely to meet its 2030 climate target and probably its 2035 one, but its total greenhouse gas emissions are still projected to rise, according to the United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, released on Wednesday, 21 October. The report, titled “The Point of Return”, says the world has lost the chance to hold warming below 1.5°C without a temporary overshoot.
India’s Emissions Flat in 2025, Still Rising Ahead
UNEP estimates India emitted about 4.5 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases in 2025, the third-highest in the world after China and the United States, Business Standard reported. Per person, the figure was 3.1 tonnes, against a world average of 6.4 tonnes. India’s emissions were roughly flat in 2025 after years of fast growth; the report says some datasets show a slight fall and one shows a slight rise, partly because of weather and partly because of more renewable power.
India’s new 2035 goals are to cut emissions per unit of GDP by 47 per cent from 2005 levels, draw about 60 per cent of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources, and add 3.5 to 4 billion tonnes of carbon absorption through forests and trees. Because the main goal is tied to GDP, total emissions can keep growing. UNEP notes that India is the only G20 member whose new 2035 target leads to higher expected emissions than its 2030 target.
Cuts of 45% by 2035 for the World
Global emissions were about 58.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, almost unchanged from 2024. To bring warming back to 1.5°C by 2100, the report says emissions must fall 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, measured against 2025. Full delivery of current pledges would cut only 5 to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035. G20 members produced 76 per cent of global emissions in 2025.
Next Climate Round Will Test the Pledges
The report asks governments to expand renewables, improve efficiency, cut methane and stop deforestation, and says carbon removal cannot replace direct cuts. India has not announced any change to its targets in response. More coverage is on our Daily Updates page.
Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026. Also based on reporting by Business Standard and Down To Earth.
Image: NASA Earth Observatory (Bhadla Solar Park, Rajasthan).
