Cyclone Arnab Forecast: Andhra Coast Landfall Likely on October 28
Image: The Statesman / IANS (representative)
Updated 8:55 PM IST, 25 October 2026: The system strengthened into a deep depression on Sunday afternoon and lay about 870 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1,130 km east of Bapatla, moving south-west at about 5 kmph, OdishaTV reported citing IMD. IMD expects it to become Cyclone Arnab by Monday morning, a severe cyclonic storm on 27 October and a very severe cyclonic storm before crossing the coast between Visakhapatnam and Bapatla around the forenoon of 28 October, with winds of 115–125 kmph. Red alerts for 28 October now cover 11 districts in Andhra Pradesh, five in Odisha, four in Telangana and four in Chhattisgarh.
Updated 10:55 AM IST, 25 October 2026: IMD’s 9:10 am bulletin on Sunday placed the depression over the east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal, about 860 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 950 km east-southeast of Kakinada and 1,130 km east of Bapatla, moving south-east at 8 kmph. The forecast is unchanged: a cyclonic storm by the morning of 26 October and a very severe cyclonic storm crossing the coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October. IMD expects very heavy rain in Visakhapatnam, Anakapalle, Kakinada, East and West Godavari, Konaseema, Eluru, Krishna, NTR, Guntur, Bapatla, Vizianagaram, Srikakulam, Parvathipuram Manyam and Alluri Sitarama Raju districts, with heavy rain continuing in the north coastal districts on 29 October. Rashtrapati Bhavan has moved President Droupadi Murmu’s 28–29 October visit to Mayurbhanj in Odisha to 4–5 November because of the cyclone.
The low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal became a depression on Saturday evening, 24 October, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) now expects it to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coast between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October as a very severe cyclonic storm. At 5:30 pm on Saturday the system lay about 820 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 910 km east-southeast of Kakinada, IMD said, and landfall winds are forecast at 115–125 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph. Warm seas of 29–30°C are feeding it.
Also read Odisha Cyclone Arnab: Schools Shut in 5 Districts on Oct 28-29
Red Alerts From Visakhapatnam to Bapatla
IMD’s Cyclone Warning Centre in Visakhapatnam has put coastal districts from Visakhapatnam to Bapatla under a red alert, with Krishna and NTR districts on red for heavy rain on 27 October. Alluri Sitarama Raju, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam are on orange, and Palnadu, Nellore and Prakasam on yellow. Gusts of up to 120 kmph are possible along the coast on 27 and 28 October. Fishermen at sea have been told to return.
APEPDCL, the power distributor for north coastal Andhra, has put 12 districts on high alert and opened district control rooms; outages can be reported on the toll-free number 1912. In Telangana, Khammam, Bhadradri Kothagudem and Mulugu are on red alert for 28 October.
Track Shifts South From Odisha
On Friday the forecast pointed at the north Andhra–south Odisha coast. Saturday’s IMD bulletin moved the likely crossing point further south and raised the expected strength by one category. The system is expected to drift south on Sunday as a deep depression before turning west-northwest, becoming a cyclonic storm on 26 October and a severe cyclonic storm on 27 October. It will be named Arnab, a name suggested by Bangladesh, once it reaches cyclone strength. A September depression that hit Odisha and Andhra did not reach that stage. The date matches last year’s Cyclone Montha, which crossed the Andhra coast near Kakinada on 28 October 2025.
Odisha’s South Still in the Path of Rain
Odisha has kept 17 NDRF and about 60 ODRAF teams ready, and schools in Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri will stay shut on 28 and 29 October. Forecasters say the track and intensity may still change; most global models favour Andhra Pradesh, while a few show a lower chance of a turn towards Odisha or Tamil Nadu. More on the Weather Updates page.
Source: IMD. Also based on reporting by The Hans India, ap7am, Sambad English, The Statesman, ETV Bharat, OdishaTV and Argus.
Image: The Statesman / IANS (representative).
