NCAER Business Confidence Index Rebounds to 107.8; Hiring Stays Flat

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said on 23 October that its Business Confidence Index rose to 107.8 in the July-September quarter of 2026-27, up from 99.8 in the previous quarter. The Business Expectations Survey, run in September among 502 firms in six cities, shows confidence recovering after four straight quarters of decline. It is still nearly 35 points below the 142.6 recorded in the same quarter last year, as ThePrint reported.

Most Firms Plan No New Hires

Between 76% and 79% of firms expect no change in headcount over the next six months, across skilled, unskilled, casual and permanent workers. The share planning to hire more fell in every group: skilled workers from 21% to 20%, unskilled from 23% to 21%, casual from 23% to 22% and permanent from 22% to 21.5%. On pay, 69% expect no change for managerial and skilled staff and 71% for unskilled workers.

Half the Firms Expect a Better Economy

About 49.8% of firms expect overall economic conditions to improve, up from 43.4%. Those expecting their own finances to improve rose from 37% to 40.6%, and those who view the investment climate positively from 26% to 29.5%. Capacity utilisation near or above the optimal level rose from 91.4% to 93.6%.

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A Survey Running Since 1992

NCAER has run the survey every quarter since 1992. The index stood at 142.6 in the July-September quarter of 2025-26 and at 133.8 in the following quarter, based on a survey of 500 firms in December 2025. For related reading, see our reports on the PLFS survey changes planned for 2027 and the RBI MPC minutes on interest rates.

NCAER’s next quarterly survey will cover October-December.

Source: NCAER Business Expectations Survey, 2025-26 Q3 report (for earlier figures). Also based on reporting by ThePrint. The current quarter’s NCAER release was not found online.

Image: Moushumi Das Gupta / ThePrint (representational).