IMF Data Puts India’s Per Capita GDP Below Bangladesh in 2026
India’s per capita GDP is estimated at about $2,749 in 2026, slightly below Bangladesh’s $2,886, according to data in the International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, released on October 13. The figures, measured at current prices in US dollars, were widely reported in India and Bangladesh on Friday.
What the IMF Figures Show
The IMF’s earlier April estimates had put Bangladesh at $2,911 and India at $2,812 for 2026, so both figures have been revised down, with the gap still in Bangladesh’s favour. For 2025, the data show India marginally ahead at $2,675 against Bangladesh’s $2,635. Bangladesh was also ahead in 2023 and 2024.
The same data project India moving ahead again by 2029, at about $3,662 against $3,334, and widening the gap to roughly $4,389 against $3,680 by 2031. India’s overall economy is estimated at about $4.06 trillion in 2026, far larger than Bangladesh’s, with growth forecast at around 7% next year.
Nominal Versus Purchasing Power
Nominal per capita GDP divides a country’s total output in dollars by its population, so it moves with exchange rates as well as with growth. A weaker rupee against the dollar lowers India’s figure even when output in rupees rises.
On a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, which adjusts for what money buys locally, India remains ahead, at about $12,998 per person in 2026 against Bangladesh’s $10,884, according to the IMF figures reported by The Business Standard of Dhaka. Both countries remain far below the emerging-market average of about $7,746 in nominal terms.
Why It Matters for Ordinary Indians
Per capita figures are a rough guide to average income, not to what any single family earns. Still, they shape how investors and lenders view a country, and a low dollar figure reflects the pressure of a weaker currency and costly imports, including fuel, on household budgets.
For workers and small businesses, the more useful signal is whether growth translates into jobs and higher real wages. IPB has earlier reported on projections of India’s rise among the largest economies, a reminder that total size and income per person tell different stories. Recent policy moves on fuel, such as the change in petrol and diesel export duties, also bear on the import bill.
The government has not issued a response to the comparison. The IMF’s next full update is due in April 2027.
Based on reporting by Scroll and The Business Standard (Dhaka).
Image: Yuri Gripas / Reuters, via Scroll.
